Methods and apparatus to estimate deduplicated total audiences in cross-platform media campaigns

ABSTRACT

Methods, apparatus, systems and articles of manufacture to estimate deduplicated total audiences in cross-platform media campaigns are disclosed. An example method includes determining a first audience reach for a television audience, the television audience representative of audience members exposed to the media campaign via television media delivery, and determining a second audience reach for a digital audience, the digital audience representative of audience members exposed to the media campaign via digital media delivery. The example method also includes an overlap multiplier based on the media campaign, the overlap multiplier an odds ratio, and determining a duplication factor for the media campaign based on the first audience reach, the second audience reach and the overlap multiplier. The example method also includes determining a total audience for the media campaign based on the first audience reach, the second audience reach and the duplication factor.

RELATED APPLICATION

This patent claims the benefit of, and priority from, U.S. ProvisionalPatent Application No. 62/261,253, filed on Nov. 30, 2015, entitled“Total Content Ratings.” U.S. Provisional Patent Application No.62/261,253 is hereby incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.

FIELD OF THE DISCLOSURE

This disclosure relates generally to audience measurement and, moreparticularly, to methods and apparatus to estimate deduplicated totalaudiences in cross-platform media campaigns.

BACKGROUND

Audience measurement of media (e.g., content and/or advertisementspresented by any type of medium, such as television, in theater movies,radio, Internet, etc.) is typically carried out by monitoring mediaexposure of panelists that are statistically selected to representparticular demographic groups. Audience measurement companies, such asThe Nielsen Company (US), LLC, enroll households and persons toparticipate in measurement panels. By enrolling in these measurementpanels, households and persons agree to allow the corresponding audiencemeasurement company to monitor their exposure to informationpresentations, such as media output via a television, a radio, acomputer, a smart device, etc. Using various statistical methods, thecollected media exposure data is processed to determine the size and/ordemographic composition of the audience(s) for media of interest. Theaudience size and/or demographic information is valuable to, forexample, advertisers, broadcasters, content providers, manufacturers,retailers, product developers and/or other entities. For example,audience size and demographic information is a factor in the placementof advertisements, in valuing commercial time slots during a particularprogram and/or generating ratings for piece(s) of media.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 depicts an example cross-platform media campaign environment inwhich exposures of television and Internet media campaigns are monitoredfor respective television and online audience members.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram of an example implementation of the exampleduplication manager of FIG. 1.

FIGS. 3 and/or 4 are flowcharts representative of example computerreadable instructions that may be executed by the processing platform ofFIG. 5 to implement the example duplication manager of FIG. 1 and/orFIG. 2.

FIG. 5 is a block diagram of an example processing platform capable ofexecuting the example machine-readable instructions of FIGS. 3 and/or 4to implement the example duplication manager of FIG. 1 and/or FIG. 2.

Wherever possible, the same reference numbers will be used throughoutthe drawing(s) and accompanying written description to refer to the sameor like parts.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Example methods, apparatus, and articles of manufacture disclosed hereinenable determining audience duplication in cross-platform mediacampaigns. Examples disclosed herein may analyze television-based mediacampaigns delivered via televisions, and Internet-based media campaignsdelivered via personal computers and/or mobile devices such as mobilephones, smart phones, tablet devices (e.g., an Apple iPad), multi-mediaphones, etc. Examples disclosed herein may be used to provide mediaproviders with campaign exposure information to enable such mediaproviders to make more informed decisions about where to spend, forexample, advertising dollars, and/or how to distribute advertisements.Such examples are beneficial to marketers, product manufacturers,service companies, advertisers, and/or any other individual or entitythat pays for advertising opportunities within the media campaign.

Monitoring entities, such as television measurement entities, onlinemeasurement entities, total digital measurement entities, etc., trackimpressions of media and provide audience metrics based on theimpressions. An impression refers to a recordation of a presentation ofan item of media (e.g., from a media campaign) to an audience member. Asused herein, the “audience” of a designated item of media refers to thenumber of persons who have viewed the designated item of media. An“audience member” of an audience refers to an individual person withinthe audience. Whereas the calculation of the audience of a media itemmay, in some examples disclosed herein, count a single audience membermultiple times, the “unique audience” of a media is an audience of themedia item in which each audience member is represented only once.“Reach” refers to the amount of a population that corresponds to themeasured audience. For example, if the measured audience is 500 and thepopulation of an area is 1,000, the reach for a given media campaign is½ or 50% of the population.

Examples disclosed herein deduplicate total audience by determining anoverlap multiplier representative of overlap in audience acrossplatforms. In the illustrated example, the overlap multiplier is an oddsratio. For example, disclosed examples determine an overlap multiplierbased on (1) a first reach associated with audience members who viewedthe media via a TV platform, (2) a second reach associated with audiencemembers who viewed the media via a digital platform, (3) a third reachassociated with audience members who viewed the media via the TVplatform and the digital platform, and (4) a fourth reach associatedwith audience members who did not view the media. In the illustratedexample, the overlap multiplier is determined at a media hierarchy×genrelevel. Media hierarchy may refer to an episode level, a program level,an originator level, etc. Thus, disclosed examples determine a pluralityof overlap multipliers. In some examples, the overlap multipliers arebased on historic data. For example, audience metrics may be aggregatedover a period (e.g., six months) and then processed to determine theoverlap multipliers. In some examples, the overlap multipliers areretrieved from a deduplication factors repository. For example, thededuplication factors repository may access observed duplication acrossmedia platforms and generate deduplication factors based on the observedduplications. Example techniques for determining overlap multipliers(e.g., deduplication factors) are disclosed in U.S. patent applicationSer. No. 15/338,301, filed on Oct. 28, 2016, entitled “Collapsed-LevelDeduplication Based on a Data Matching System,” which is herebyincorporated herein by reference in its entirety.

Disclosed examples then use the overlap multipliers to determine aduplication factor in a media campaign (e.g., a current media campaign).For example, disclosed examples may obtain audience metrics (e.g.,reach) for the television platform and the digital platform for a mediacampaign. In the examples disclosed herein, digital media and onlinemedia are used interchangeably throughout. Disclosed examples also mapthe media campaign to a genre (e.g., comedy, drama, news, etc.) andobtain an overlap multiplier that corresponds to the media campaignbased on the genre and the media hierarchy level. Disclosed examplesthen determine the duplication factor based on the audience metrics andthe overlap multiplier. Examples disclosed herein apply the duplicationfactor to the total audience to determine a duplicated audience, whichis then removed from the total audience to determine the deduplicatedtotal audience for the cross-platform media campaign. In some examples,the operations are repeated at different media hierarchy levels toprovide deduplicated total audience at different media hierarchy levels(e.g., at the episode level, at the program level, at the originatorlevel, etc.).

FIG. 1 is an illustration of an example environment 100 implemented inaccordance with the teachings of this disclosure to estimatededuplicated total audiences for cross-platform media campaigns. In theillustrated example of FIG. 1, the example cross-platform media campaignincludes a television campaign delivered via television media accessdevices 104 and a corresponding digital campaign delivered viaInternet-enabled devices 106. In the illustrated example, the televisioncampaign and the digital campaign correspond to the same media campaignbut are delivered via both media and digital media. For example, a usermay watch a broadcast of an episode of “Comedy Show” during itsregularly scheduled broadcast time via a television media access device104. The user may then re-watch the same episode of “Comedy Show” thefollowing day via an on-demand service via a television media accessdevice 104 and/or an Internet-enabled device 106, and then re-watch thesame episode of “Comedy Show” twenty days later via an Internet-enableddevice 106.

The television media access devices 104 of the illustrated exampleinclude multiple types of devices via which television media isaccessible. For example, the television media access devices 104 (e.g.,the television platform) may include one or more of televisions, smarttelevisions and/or any other device that can access television mediasuch as broadcast and/or streaming television media. TheInternet-enabled devices 106 of the illustrated example include multipletypes of devices that can access digital media. For example, theInternet-enabled devices 106 (e.g., the digital platform) may includeone or more of computers, tablet devices, smart phones, smarttelevisions and/or any other device that can access digital media (e.g.,web pages, streaming radio and/or streaming video, pictures,downloadable video, streaming/downloadable music, etc.).

To track television media impressions, a TV measurement entity 108 ofthe illustrated example recruits audience members to be part of atelevision (TV) audience member panel 110 a by consenting to havingtheir television viewing activities monitored. In some examples, the TVaudience member panel 100 a is implemented using Nielsen's NationalPeople Meter (NPM) panel. The TV measurement entity 108 of theillustrated example maintains a television panel database 112 to storepanel member information such as demographics, media preferences and/orother personal or non-personal information suitable for describingcharacteristics, preferences, locations, etc. of audience membersexposed to television media. To measure impressions of television media(e.g., television media including advertisements and/or programming),the TV measurement entity 108 monitors the viewing habits of members ofthe television audience member panel 110 a and records impressionsagainst different television media to which the television audiencemember 110 a are exposed in the example television panel database 112.

In the illustrated example of FIG. 1, the TV measurement entity 108includes a TV metrics calculator 109. The example TV metrics calculator109 processes the TV impressions and determines TV audience metrics suchas, for example, reach, audience size, etc. For example, the TV metricscalculator 109 may use example Equation 1 below to calculate reach forthe TV audience (reach_(TV)).

$\begin{matrix}{{reach}_{TV} = \frac{{Audience}_{TV}}{UE}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 1}\end{matrix}$

In Equation 1 above, the audience (audience_(TV)) variable representsthe number of audience members who viewed the media program via atelevision access device 104 (e.g., via the TV platform). The universeestimate (UE) represents the population of an audience to be measured.For example, the universe estimate (UE) may correspond to an audience ina geographic area such as a city, a state, a region, a country, etc.

In the illustrated example, the TV metrics calculator 109 determines theTV audience metrics at different media hierarchy levels. For example,the TV metrics calculator 109 may determine an audience reach for aprogram “Comedy Hour” at the episode level, the program level and/or theoriginator level. In some examples, the calculations performed by the TVmetrics calculator 109 are performed separately for each demographicgroup (e.g., each demographic bucket). For example, the TV metricscalculator 109 may process the TV impressions in the television paneldatabase 112 to determine total TV audience reach for males 18-34 at theepisode level of “Comedy Hour.” In some examples, to simplify theformula, the superscript “(d)” (which represents a demographic group(d)) is ignored in all notations. For example, instead of (reach_(TV)),(reach_(TV)) is used to represent TV reach within demographic group (d).

In the illustrated example, an audience measurement entity (AME) 102operates the TV measurement entity 108. To track digital mediaimpressions, the AME 102 of the illustrated example partners with atotal digital measurement entity 116 having registered users of theirservices. In the illustrated example, the AME 102 partners with thetotal digital measurement entity 116, which may be, for example, asocial network site (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, MySpace, etc.), amulti-service site (e.g., Yahoo!, Google, Experian, etc.), an onlineretailer site (e.g., Amazon.com, Buy.com, etc.) and/or any other webservice(s) site that maintain(s) user registration records. In someexamples, when users register with the total digital measurement entity116 to use one or more of its online services, the users agree to aterms of service (ToS) and/or online privacy policy of the total digitalmeasurement entity 116 stating that some Internet usage information isused to track Internet viewing/usage activities.

The total digital measurement entity 116 of the illustrated examplemaintains a total digital user database 118 to store user registrationinformation such as demographics, media preferences and/or otherpersonal and/or non-personal information suitable for describingcharacteristics, preferences, locations, etc. of registered usersexposed to digital media. To measure impressions of digital media (e.g.,media including advertisements and/or programming), the total digitalmeasurement entity 116 monitors online activities of its registeredusers and records impressions against different digital media to whichthe digital audience members 110 c are exposed. The example totaldigital measurement entity 116 records the impressions of digital mediain the example total digital user database 118.

In the illustrated example of FIG. 1, the total digital measuremententity 116 includes a total digital metrics calculator 117. The exampletotal digital metrics calculator 117 processes the digital impressionsand determines digital audience metrics such as, for example, reach,audience size, etc. For example, the digital metrics calculator 109 mayuse example Equation 2 below to calculate reach for the digital audience(reach_(digital)).

$\begin{matrix}{{reach}_{digital} = \frac{{Audience}_{digital}}{UE}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 2}\end{matrix}$

In Equation 2 above, the audience (audience_(digital)) variablerepresents the number of audience members who viewed the media programvia an Internet-enabled device 106 (e.g., via the digital platform). Theuniverse estimate (UE) represents the population of an audience to bemeasured. For example, the universe estimate (UE) may correspond to ageographic area such as a city, a state, a region, a country, etc.

In the illustrated example, the total digital metrics calculator 117determines the total digital audience metrics at different mediahierarchy levels. For example, the total digital metrics calculator 117may determine an audience reach for a program “Comedy Hour” at theepisode level, the program level and/or the originator level (e.g., at amedia hierarchy). In some examples, the calculations performed by thetotal digital metrics calculator 117 are performed separately for eachdemographic group (e.g., each demographic bucket). For example, thetotal digital metrics calculator 117 may process the digital impressionsin the total digital user database 118 to determine total digitalaudience reach for males 18-34 at the episode level of “Comedy Hour.” Insome examples, to simplify the formula, the superscript “(d)” (whichrepresents a demographic group (d)) is ignored in all notations. Forexample, instead of (reach_(digital) ^(d)), (reach_(digital)) is used torepresent total digital reach within demographic group (d).

In the illustrated example of FIG. 1, the total digital metricscalculator 117 calculates the digital audience metrics at a platformlevel. For example, the total digital metrics calculator 117 calculatesa first set of metrics (e.g., reach, audience size, etc.) for mobiledevices, a second set of metrics for PC devices etc. Because the userswho access the digital media have registered with the total digitalmeasurement entity 116, the example total digital metrics calculator 117maps the users across the different digital platforms. Accordingly, thetotal digital metrics calculator 117 may also deduplicate audiencebetween the digital platforms. For example, if a user views an episodeof “Comedy Hour” on their smart phone and then re-watches the sameepisode on their personal computer, the example total digital metricscalculator 117 includes the user in a mobile audience count(audience_(mobile)) and a PC audience count (audience_(PC)), but theexample total digital metrics calculator 117 only counts the user oncein the total digital audience count (audience_(digital)).

In some examples, to measure impressions of digital media (e.g., webpages, streaming radio and/or streaming video, pictures downloadablevideo, streaming/downloadable music, etc.), the total digitalmeasurement entity 116 installs personal computer (PC) meters on theInternet-enabled devices 106 of the digital audience members 110 c tomonitor the viewing habits of the digital audience members 110 c. In theillustrated example, each PC meter in a corresponding Internet-enableddevice 106 is provided with a unique meter ID that can be used toidentify a digital audience member panelist and/or a digital audiencehousehold. Additionally or alternatively, any other impressioncollection technique(s) could be used including those in U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/513,148 (now U.S. Pat. No. 8,370,489), filed onMay 31, 2012, entitled “Methods and Apparatus to Determine ImpressionsUsing Distributed Demographic Information,” and U.S. patent applicationSer. No. 14/127,414 (now U.S. Pat. No. 8,930,701), filed on Dec. 18,2013, entitled “Methods and Apparatus to Collect Distributed UserInformation for Media Impressions and Search Terms.” U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/514,148 and U.S. patent application Ser. No.14/127,414 are hereby incorporated herein by reference in theirentirety. The total digital measurement entity 116 uses Internet usageactivity data to log impressions against different digital media towhich the digital audience members 110 c were exposed.

As shown in the illustrated example of FIG. 1, some of the televisionaudience members 110 a are also digital audience members 110 c,resulting in a subset of overlapping audience members 120. In someexamples, the overlapping audience members 120 arise when persons in thetelevision audience members 110 a also subscribe to the servicesprovided by the total digital measurement entity 116. In the illustratedexample, the television audience members 110 a include a subset ofcross-platform home (CPH) audience panel members 110 b that are alsopart of the digital audience 110 c and access digital media via theInternet-enabled devices 106. The television panel database 112 of theillustrated example stores panel member information about those CPHaudience panel members 110 b in a CPH panel database 114 for use intracking their digital media viewing habits.

In the illustrated example, the AME 102 and the total digitalmeasurement entity 116 use online media tagging techniques to trackmedia impressions. Such online media tagging techniques use ad tags ormedia tags, which are beacon instructions located in media (e.g.,advertisements or content) downloaded to web browsers of client devices(e.g., the Internet-enabled devices 106). When the web browsers executethe beacon instructions, the web browsers send a beacon request to theonline measurement entity 116 and/or the Internet service databaseproprietor 122 to log an impression for the corresponding online media.Examples that may be used to implement online media tagging techniquesare disclosed in Blumenau, U.S. Pat. No. 6,108,637, which is herebyincorporated herein by reference in its entirety, in internationalpatent application no. PCT/US11/52623, filed on Sep. 21, 2011, which ishereby incorporated herein by reference in its entirety, Burbank et al.,U.S. Pat. No. 8,930,701, which is hereby incorporated herein byreference in its entirety, and Mazumdar et al., U.S. Pat. No. 8,370,489,which is hereby incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.

Producers of media interested in reach measures of their cross-platformmedia campaigns may obtain television impression information ortelevision reach measurements from the TV measurement entity 108 andseparately obtain digital impression information or digital reachmeasures from the total digital measurement entity 116. However, suchseparately collected measures contain overlapping audience members 120.In such examples, the TV measurement entity 108 tracks televisioncampaign impressions for the panel audience members 110 a, and the totaldigital measurement entity 116 separately tracks digital campaignimpressions for its registered users, some of which overlap with thepanel audience members 110 a. As such, when the TV measurement entity108 logs a television-based impression for a TV audience panel member110 a in connection with a particular media campaign, and the totaldigital measurement entity 116 logs a digital media-based impression inconnection with the same media campaign for the same TV audience panelmember 110 a that happens to also be a registered user of the totaldigital measurement entity 116, the resulting television reach measuregenerated by the TV measurement entity 108 and the resulting digitalreach measure generated by the total digital measurement entity 116 arebased on duplicate impressions for the same audience members exposed tothe same media campaigns, albeit via different media delivery types(e.g., television and digital platforms).

In the illustrated example, the TV measurement entity 108 is operated bythe AME 102, and the total digital measurement entity 116 is a separateentity from the AME 102. In the illustrated example, the total digitalmeasurement entity 116 does not share identifiers and/or user-levelinformation of its registered users represented in the total digitaluser database 118 with the AME 102, and the AME 102 does not shareidentities and/or user-level information of its panel membersrepresented in the databases 112, 114 with the total digital measuremententity 116. In some examples, to honor privacy policies, the AME 102 andthe total digital measurement entity 116 do not share identities and/oruser-level information about their audience members or registered users.As such, the television panel database 112, including the CPH paneldatabase 114, is maintained separately from the total digital userdatabase 118, and the AME maintained databases 112, 114 are not linkedto the total digital user database 118. Because the AME maintaineddatabases 112, 114 are not linked to the total digital user database 118and the AME 102 and the total digital measurement entity 116 do notshare audience member information and/or registered user information,traditional techniques for generating cross-platform media reach metricsdo not eliminate duplicate audience member impressions resulting fromthe same audience members tracked for different media delivery types(e.g., platforms).

In the illustrated example of FIG. 1, the example AME 102 includes aduplication manager 130 to provide producers of cross-platform media(e.g., television and digital campaigns including advertisements andcontent) with reach measures of their media to unique televisionaudience members 110 a exposed to the television media via thetelevision media access devices 104, and to unique Internet audiencemembers exposed to the online media as measured using impressionscollected by the Internet service database proprietor 122. To improvethe accuracy of reach measures, the example duplication manager 130determines a television audience reach (e.g., from the example TVmetrics calculator 109) and a total digital audience reach (e.g., formthe example total digital metrics calculator 117). As disclosed above,in some instances, audience members may be uniquely identified in eachrespective platform. For example, if a user watches an episode of“Comedy Show” during broadcast via a television media access device 104and then re-watches the episode three days later via an online service,then traditional techniques for estimating total unique audience would(1) credit the episode with a first impression for TV exposure and asecond impression for digital exposure, and (2) double-count the user inthe total audience count of audience members exposed to thecross-platform media. Thus, adding the TV audience to the total digitalaudience does not accurately provide a total audience for thecross-platform media. To deduplicate total audience in cross-platformmedia campaigns, the example duplication manager 130 uses exampleEquation 3 below to calculate the deduplicated total audience (DDTA) forthe cross-platform media.

DDTA=UE*(reach_(TV)+reach_(digital)−(reach_(TV)+reach_(digital))*DF)  Equation3:

In Equation 3 above, the deduplicated total audience (DDTA) representsthe total number of unique audience members exposed to thecross-platform media campaign. In Equation 1 above, the variable(reach_(TV)) represents the duplicated television audience reach and thevariable (reach_(digital)) represents the duplicated digital audiencereach. The duplicated television audience reach (reach_(TV)) representsa percentage of a population (e.g., a universe estimate) who wereexposed to the media campaign via at least television media delivery.Thus, the duplicated television audience reach (reach_(TV)) may alsoinclude a number of users who were also exposed to the digital mediacampaign and, therefore, may be duplicated (e.g., double-counted). Theduplicated digital audience reach (reach_(digital)) represents apercentage of a population (e.g., a universe estimate) who were exposedto the media campaign via at least digital media delivery (e.g., via amobile device, a PC, etc.). Thus, the duplicated digital audience reach(reach_(digital)) may also include a number of users who were alsoexposed to the media campaign via television media delivery and,therefore, may be duplicated (e.g., double-counted).

In Equation 3, the duplication factor (DF) represents an overlap betweenthe duplicated television audience reach and the duplicated digitalaudience reach. As disclosed below in connection with the duplicationmanager 130 of FIG. 2, the duplication manager 130 may use Equation 4below to calculate the duplication factor (DF).

$\begin{matrix}{{DF} = {\frac{( {{- 1} + ( {( {{OR} - 1} )*( {{reach}_{TV} + {reach}_{digital}} )} )} )}{2*( {1 - {OR}} )} + \frac{\sqrt{\begin{matrix}{( {1 + {( {{OR} - 1} )*( {{reach}_{TV} + {reach}_{digital}} )}} )^{2} +} \\{4( {1 - {OR}} )( {{OR}*{reach}_{TV}*{reach}_{digital}} )}\end{matrix}}}{2*( {1 - {OR}} )}}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 4}\end{matrix}$

In Equation 4 above, the first example reach (reach_(TV)) represents apercentage of a population (e.g., a universe estimate) who were exposedto TV media via at least the TV platform (e.g., a duplicated televisionaudience who were exposed to at least the television media campaign). InEquation 4 above, the second example reach (reach_(digital)) representsa percentage of a population (e.g., a universe estimate) who wereexposed to digital media via at least the digital platform (e.g., aduplicated online audience who were exposed to at least the digitalmedia campaign). In Equation 4 above, the overlap multiplier (OR)represents a ratio based on (1) a duplicated number of people whowatched the media on both platforms, (2) a non-duplicated number ofpeople who watched the media on the TV platform, (3) a non-duplicatednumber of people who watched the media on the digital platform, and (4)a number of people who did not watch the media at all. In theillustrated example, the overlap multiplier (OR) is an odds ratio. Anexample technique for determining the overlap multiplier (OR) isdisclosed in connection with an example overlap calculator 210 of FIG.2. However, other techniques for calculating an overlap multiplier mayadditionally or alternatively be used. For example, the duplicationmanager 130 may obtain the duplication factor (DF) from a deduplicationfactors repository, as disclosed in Spoentgen et al., U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 15/338,301, which is hereby incorporated herein byreference in its entirety.

Although disclosed examples are described herein in connection with theAME 102 being the implementing entity of such disclosed examples, suchdisclosed examples may be implemented by the AME 102, by an entityimplementing the TV measurement entity 108 separate from the AME 102, byan entity implementing the total digital measurement entity 116 separatefrom the AME 102, and/or by any other entity interested in generatingmedia impression reports and/or reach metrics. In some examples, the TVmeasurement entity 108 and the total digital measurement entity 116 maybe implemented by respective entities separate from the AME 102. Inother examples, the AME 102 may implement one of the TV measuremententity 108 or the total digital measurement entity 116. In yet otherexamples, the AME 102 may include or be part of the total digitalmeasurement entity 116.

Multi-platform media campaigns may often include double-counted audiencemembers due to the audience measurement entity not knowing which uniquemembers were exposed to multiple instances of the same media acrossmultiple platforms. In some examples, the audience measurement entityknows which panelists are exposed to instances of cross-platform media.However, a panel is limited to those panelists who are enrolled, whilenon-panelists may represent the entire population of a country toacquire audience measurements of the entire population. Accordingly, theexample methods and apparatus disclosed herein utilize panelist data incombination with census data (e.g., impression data that includes loggedimpression for the audience population being measured without regard tosuch audience including panelists or non-panelists) to estimatededuplicated unique audiences. The example duplication manager 130utilizes audience metrics associated with the panelist data from theexample CPH panel database 114 to determine an overlap multiplier (OR).In the illustrated example, the overlap multiplier (OR) is an oddsratio. The odds ratio is a measure of association that provides a way ofincreasing (or decreasing) an overlap percentage regardless of a changein the number of audience members exposed to the media campaign via oneplatform or both platforms. The example duplication manager 130 thencalculates the duplication factor (DF) using the overlap multiplier (OR)and the audience reaches of the two platforms. For example, theduplication manager 130 may use Equation 4 above to calculate theduplication factor (DF). The duplication manager 130 then uses theduplication factor (DF) to calculate the deduplicated total audience(DDTA) of the cross-platform media campaign.

FIG. 2 is an example implementation of the duplication manager 130 ofFIG. 1. The example duplication manager 130 of FIG. 2 includes anexample metrics manager 205, an example overlap calculator 210, anexample factors database 215, an example deduplicator 220, and anexample audience manager 225. In the illustrated example of FIG. 2, themetrics manager 205, the example overlap calculator 210, the examplefactors database 215, the example deduplicator 220, and the exampleaudience manager 225 are communicatively coupled (e.g., via a bus 230).

In the illustrated example of FIG. 2, the duplication manager 130includes the example metrics manager 205 to manage metrics forcross-platform media campaigns. For example, the metrics manager 205 mayobtain and record TV audience metrics for media campaigns from theexample TV metrics calculator 109 of FIG. 1. The example metrics manager205 may also obtain and record total digital audience metrics fordigital media campaigns from the example total digital metricscalculator 117 of FIG. 1. In the illustrated example of FIG. 2, theaudience metrics obtained and recorded by the metrics manager 205 are atthe media hierarchy level. For example, the audience metrics for theprogram “Comedy Hour” may include audience reach at the episode level,at the program level, at the originator level, etc.

In the illustrated example of FIG. 2, the duplication manager 130includes the example overlap calculator 210 to determine overlapmultipliers at different media hierarchy×genre levels. For example, theoverlap calculator 210 may determine an overlap multiplier for comediesat the episode level, comedies at the program level, comedies at theoriginator level, dramas at the episode level, etc. In some examples,the overlap calculator 210 obtains the overlap multipliers from a sourcesuch a deduplication factors repository. An example implementation ofobtaining overlap multipliers from a deduplication factors repository isdisclosed in Spoentgen et al, U.S. patent application Ser. No.15/338,301, which is hereby incorporated herein by reference.

In the illustrated example, the overlap calculator 210 calculates theoverlap multipliers using historical data from the CPH panel database114. As disclosed above, the CPH panel database 114 includes panelistdata for users who are included in the TV panel database 112 and thetotal digital user database 118. The example overlap calculator 210aggregates data from the CPH panel database 114 over a period (e.g., sixmonths) and then determines the overlap multipliers at the mediahierarchy×genre level. For example, the overlap calculator 210 maygenerate 2×2 matrices at the media hierarchy×genre level based on TVaudience reach and total digital audience reach. An example 2×2 matrixis shown in Table 1 below for comedies at the episode level.

TABLE 1 TV = Yes TV = No Digital = Yes X₁₁ X₀₁ Reach_(Digital) = X₁₁ +X₀₁ Digital = No X₁₀ X₀₀ Reach_(TV) = X₁₁ + X₁₀

In the illustrated example of Table 1, the first column representsaudience reach associated with exposure to media via the TV platform andthe second column represents audience reach associated with no exposureto media via the TV platform. The first row of the example Table 1represents audience reach associated with exposure to digital media viathe digital platforms and the second row represents audience reachassociated with no exposure to digital media via the digital platforms.

In the illustrated example of Table 1, a first variable (X₁₁) representsa panel duplication reach. For example, the overlap calculator 210 maydetermine the panel duplication reach (X₁₁) using Equation 5 below.

$\begin{matrix}{X_{11} = \frac{{Audience}_{{Duplicated}\; \_ \; {Panel}}}{UE}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 5}\end{matrix}$

In Equation 5 above, the panel duplication reach (X₁₁) is determined asa ratio of (1) the number of audience members who were exposed to mediavia the TV platform and the digital platforms (Audience_(Duplicated)_(_) _(Panel)) and (2) the estimated universe (UE). The example overlapcalculator 215 of FIG. 2 may obtain the number of audience members whowere exposed to media via the TV platform and the digital platforms fromthe metrics manager 205.

In the illustrated example of Table 1, a second variable (X₁₀)represents a deduplicated panel reach for the first platform. Forexample, the overlap calculator 210 may determine the deduplicated panelreach for the TV platform (X₁₀) using Equation 6 below.

$\begin{matrix}{X_{10} = \frac{{Audience}_{TV}}{UE}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 6}\end{matrix}$

In Equation 6 above, the deduplicated panel reach for the TV platform(X₁₀) is determined as a ratio of (1) the number of audience members whowere exposed to the media using only the TV platform (Audience_(TV)) and(2) the estimated universe (UE). The example overlap calculator 210 ofFIG. 2 may obtain the number of audience members who were exposed to themedia using only the TV platform (Audience_(TV)) from the metricsmanager 205 and/or the TV measurement entity 108.

In the illustrated example of Table 1 above, a third variable (X₀₁)represents a deduplicated panel reach for the digital platform. Forexample, the overlap calculator 210 may determine the deduplicated panelreach for the digital platforms (X₀₁) using Equation 7 below.

$\begin{matrix}{X_{01} = \frac{{Audience}_{digital}}{UE}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 7}\end{matrix}$

In Equation 7 above, the deduplicated panel reach for the digitalplatforms (X₀₁) is determined as a ratio of (1) the number of audiencemembers who were exposed to the media using only the digital platforms(Audience_(digital)) and (2) the estimated universe (UE). The exampleoverlap calculator 210 of FIG. 2 may obtain the number of audiencemembers who were exposed to the media using only the digital platforms(Audience_(digital)) from the metrics manager 205 and/or the totaldigital measurement entity 116.

In the illustrated example of Table 1, a fourth variable (X₀₀)represents a number of audience members who did not view the mediaprogram at all (e.g., were included in neither the TV platform audiencenor the total digital platform audience). For example, the overlapcalculator 210 may determine the did-not-view reach (X₀₀) using Equation8 below.

$\begin{matrix}{X_{00} = \frac{\begin{matrix}{{UE} - ( {Audience}_{TV} ) - ( {Audience}_{digital} ) -} \\( {Audience}_{{Duplicated}\; \_ \; {Panel}} )\end{matrix}}{UE}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 8}\end{matrix}$

In Equation 8 above, the did-not-view reach (X₀₀) is determined as aratio of (1) the number of audience members who were not included in theTV audience (Audience_(TV)), the total digital audience(Audience_(digital)) and the duplicated panel audience(Audience_(Duplicated) _(_) _(Panel)) and (2) the estimated universe(UE). The example overlap calculator 210 of FIG. 2 may obtain the TVaudience (Audience_(TV)), the total digital audience(Audience_(digital)) and the duplicated panel audience(Audience_(Duplicated) _(_) _(Panel)) from the metrics manager 205, theTV measurement entity 108 and/or the total digital measurement entity116.

In some examples, the calculations performed by the overlap calculator210 are performed separately for each demographic group (e.g., eachdemographic bucket). In some examples, to simplify the formula, thesuperscript “(d)” (which represents a demographic group (d)) is ignoredin all notations. For example, instead of audience reach (reach_(TV)^(d)), audience reach (reach_(TV)) is used to represent audience reachwithin demographic group (d) of the TV platform.

In the illustrated example, the overlap calculator 210 applies the panelduplication reach (X₁₁), the deduplicated panel reach for the TVplatform (X₁₀), the deduplicated panel reach for the digital platforms(X₀₁), and the did-not-view reach (X₀₀) variables (also referred toherein as “odds ratio factors”) to Equation 9 to calculate the overlapmultiplier (OR) between the TV audience and the digital audience basedon panelist information.

$\begin{matrix}{{OR} = \frac{X_{11}*X_{00}}{X_{01}*X_{10}}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 9}\end{matrix}$

To solve Equation 9 the example overlap calculator 210 determines theodds ratio factors (X₁₁), (X₁₀), (X₀₁), (X₀₀) using Equations 5-8. Inthe illustrated example, the overlap calculator 210 calculates theoverlap multipliers (OR) at the media hierarchy×genre level. The exampleoverlap calculator 210 records the calculated overlap multipliers in theexample factors database 215.

The example factors database 215 may be implemented by a volatile memory(e.g., a Synchronous Dynamic Random Access Memory (SDRAM), DynamicRandom Access Memory (DRAM), RAMBUS Dynamic Random Access Memory(RDRAM), etc.) and/or a non-volatile memory (e.g., flash memory). Theexample factors database 215 may additionally or alternatively beimplemented by one or more double data rate (DDR) memories, such as DDR,DDR2, DDR3, mobile DDR (mDDR), etc. The example factors database 215 mayadditionally or alternatively be implemented by one or more mass storagedevices such as hard disk drive(s), compact disk drive(s), digitalversatile disk drive(s), etc. While in the illustrated example thefactors database 215 is illustrated as a single database, the factorsdatabase 215 may be implemented by any number and/or type(s) ofdatabases.

In the illustrated example of FIG. 2, the ratings manager 130 includesthe example deduplicator 220 to calculate a duplication factor used bythe example audience manager 225 to calculate a deduplicated totalaudience (DDT A) for a cross-platform media campaign. The examplededuplicator 220 uses Equation 4 (reproduced below for convenience) tocalculate the duplication factor (DF).

$\begin{matrix}{{DF} = {\frac{( {{- 1} + ( {( {{OR} - 1} )*( {{reach}_{TV} + {reach}_{digital}} )} )} )}{2*( {1 - {OR}} )} + \frac{\sqrt{\begin{matrix}{( {1 + {( {{OR} - 1} )*( {{reach}_{TV} + {reach}_{digital}} )}} )^{2} +} \\{4( {1 - {OR}} )( {{OR}*{reach}_{TV}*{reach}_{digital}} )}\end{matrix}}}{2*( {1 - {OR}} )}}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 4}\end{matrix}$

In Equation 4 above, the example TV audience reach (reach_(TV))represents a percentage of a population (e.g., a universe estimate) whowere exposed to media via at least the TV platform (e.g., a duplicatedtelevision audience who were exposed to at least the television mediacampaign). In Equation 4 above, the example digital audience reach(reach_(digital)) represents a percentage of a population (e.g., auniverse estimate) who were exposed to at least media via at least thedigital platforms (e.g., a duplicated digital audience who were exposedto at least the digital media campaign). In the illustrated example, thededuplicator 220 obtains the first example reach (reach_(TV)) and thesecond example reach (reach_(digital)) from the metrics manager 205.

In Equation 4 above, the overlap multiplier (OR) is an odds ratio thatis determined by the example overlap calculator 210. As shown above, theoverlap calculator 210 determines the overlap multiplier (OR) based onknowledge of (1) a duplicated number of people who watched media on twoplatforms (X₁₁), (2) a non-duplicated number of people who watched themedia on only the TV platform (X₁₀), (3) a non-duplicated number ofpeople who watched the media on only the digital platforms (X₀₁), and(4) a number of people who did not watch the media at all (X₀₀). Thus,the overlap calculator 210 determines the overlap multiplier (OR) usingpanelist data from the CPH panel database 114, from which the four oddsratio factors (X₁₁), (X₁₀), (X₀₁), (X₀₀) can be determined.

In contrast, the deduplicator 220 determines the duplication factor (DF)for a cross-platform media campaign without knowledge of the four oddsratio factors (X₁₁), (X₁₀), (X₀₁), (X₀₀). For example, the audiencereaches (reach_(TV)), (reach_(digital)) provided by the metrics manager205 correspond to deduplicated audience reaches within the respectiveplatforms. However, the audience reaches do not include identities ofaudience members who viewed the media via only one platform or the otherplatform. Thus, the example deduplicator 220 determines the duplicationfactor (DF) to estimate the duplicated audience across the TV platformand the total digital platform. To select the correct overlap multiplier(OR) to apply to Equation 4, the example deduplicator 220 determines(e.g., maps) a genre of the media campaign (e.g., comedy, drama, news,etc.). The example deduplicator 220 then obtains the overlap multiplier(OR) corresponding to the media hierarchy level (e.g., episode, program,originator, etc.) based on the determined genre of the media campaign.

In the illustrated example of FIG. 2, the duplication manager 130includes the audience manager 225 to estimate a deduplicated totalaudience (DDTA) for a cross-platform media campaign. The exampleaudience manager 225 of FIG. 2 applies Equation 3 (reproduced below forconvenience) to calculate the DDTA.

DDTA=UE*(reach_(TV)+reach_(digital)(reach_(TV)+reach_(digital))*DF)  Equation3:

In Equation 3 above, the audience manager 225 determines thededuplicated total audience (DDTA) based on a total audience reach ofthe TV platform (reach_(TV)), a total audience reach of the digitalplatforms (reach_(digital)) and a duplicated audience between the TVplatform and the total digital platforms((reach_(TV)+reach_(digital))*DF). The example audience manager 225multiplies the difference of the duplicated audience and the totalaudience reaches by a universe estimate (UE) (e.g., the population of anaudience to be measured) to calculate the deduplicated total audience(DDTA).

In operation, the example duplication manager 130 determines theplatforms included in a cross-platform media campaign. For example, theduplication manager 130 may determine that a cross-platform mediacampaign includes a TV platform, a digital TV (DTV) platform and adigital content ratings (DCR) platform. The example duplication manager130 communicates the identified platforms to the metrics manager 205.The example metrics managers 205 determines metrics, such as, forexample, reach for the identified platforms. The example metrics manager205 may calculate the metrics for panelists and for non-panelists. Theexample overlap calculator 210 utilizes the metrics provided by themetrics manager 205 to determine the overlap multiplier (OR) forpanelist data using the CPH panel database. For example, the overlapcalculator 210 may use Equation 4 (above) to calculate the overlapmultiplier (OR). The example deduplicator 220 uses metrics provided bythe metrics manager 205 and the overlap multiplier (OR) provided by theoverlap calculator 210 to determine a duplication factor (DF). Forexample, the deduplicator 220 may use Equation 2 above to calculate theduplication factor (DF) between two platforms. The example audiencemanager 225 determines a deduplicated total audience by removing theduplicated audience from a total audience. For example, the audiencemanager 225 may use Equation 1 (above) to calculate the deduplicatedtotal audience (DDTA) for the two platforms. The example duplicationmanager 130 may then repeat this operation for another pair of platformsin a subsequent iteration (e.g., a roll-up). For example, theduplication manager 130 may calculate a deduplicated total audience forthe DTV platform and the DCR platform (e.g., a digital platform) duringa first iteration, and then perform the operation using the TV platformand the digital platform during a second iteration to calculate the DDTAfor the cross-platform media campaign including the TV platform, the DTVplatform and the DCR platform.

While an example manner of implementing the duplication manager 130 ofFIG. 1 is illustrated in FIG. 2, one or more of the elements, processes,and/or devices illustrated in FIG. 2 may be combined, divided,re-arranged, omitted, eliminated and/or implemented in any other way.Further, the example metrics manager 205, the example overlap calculator210, the example factors database 215, the example deduplicator 220, andthe example audience manager 225 and/or, more generally, the exampleratings manager 130 of FIG. 1 may be implemented by hardware, software,firmware and/or any combination of hardware, software and/or firmware.Thus, for example, any of the example metrics manager 205, the exampleoverlap calculator 210, the example factors database 215, the examplededuplicator 220, and the example audience manager 225 and/or, moregenerally, the example duplication manager 130 of FIG. 1 could beimplemented by one or more analog or digital circuit(s), logic circuits,programmable processor(s), application specific integrated circuit(s)(ASIC(s)), programmable logic device(s) (PLD(s)) and/or fieldprogrammable logic device(s) (FPLD(s)). When reading any of theapparatus or system claims of this patent to cover a purely softwareand/or firmware implementation, at least one of the example metricsmanager 205, the example overlap calculator 210, the example factorsdatabase 215, the example deduplicator 220, and the example audiencemanager 225 and/or, more generally, the example duplication manager 130of FIG. 1 is/are hereby expressly defined to include a tangible computerreadable storage device or storage disk such as a memory, a digitalversatile disk (DVD), a compact disk (CD), a Blu-ray disk, etc. storingthe software and/or firmware. Further still, the example duplicationmanager 130 of FIG. 1 may include one or more elements, processes and/ordevices in addition to, or instead of, those illustrated in FIG. 2,and/or may include more than one of any or all of the illustratedelements, processes and devices.

Flowcharts representative of example machine readable instructions forimplementing the example duplication manager 130 of FIGS. 1 and/or 2 areshown in FIGS. 3 and 4. In these examples, the machine readableinstructions comprise a program for execution by a processor such as theprocessor 512 shown in the example processor platform 500 discussedbelow in connection with FIG. 5. The program may be embodied in softwarestored on a tangible computer readable storage medium such as a CD-ROM,a floppy disk, a hard drive, a digital versatile disk (DVD), a Blu-raydisk, or a memory associated with the processor 512, but the entireprogram and/or parts thereof could alternatively be executed by a deviceother than the processor 512 and/or embodied in firmware or dedicatedhardware. Further, although the example program is described withreference to the flowchart illustrated in FIG. 4, many other methods ofimplementing the example duplication manager 130 may alternatively beused. For example, the order of execution of the blocks may be changed,and/or some of the blocks described may be changed, eliminated, orcombined.

As mentioned above, the example processes of FIGS. 3 and/or 4 may beimplemented using coded instructions (e.g., computer and/or machinereadable instructions) stored on a tangible computer readable storagemedium such as a hard disk drive, a flash memory, a read-only memory(ROM), a compact disk (CD), a digital versatile disk (DVD), a cache, arandom-access memory (RAM) and/or any other storage device or storagedisk in which information is stored for any duration (e.g., for extendedtime periods, permanently, for brief instances, for temporarilybuffering, and/or for caching of the information). As used herein, theterm tangible computer readable storage medium is expressly defined toinclude any type of computer readable storage device and/or storage diskand to exclude propagating signals and to exclude transmission media. Asused herein, “tangible computer readable storage medium” and “tangiblemachine readable storage medium” are used interchangeably. Additionallyor alternatively, the example processes of FIGS. 3 and/or 4 may beimplemented using coded instructions (e.g., computer and/or machinereadable instructions) stored on a non-transitory computer and/ormachine readable medium such as a hard disk drive, a flash memory, aread-only memory, a compact disk, a digital versatile disk, a cache, arandom-access memory and/or any other storage device or storage disk inwhich information is stored for any duration (e.g., for extended timeperiods, permanently, for brief instances, for temporarily buffering,and/or for caching of the information). As used herein, the termnon-transitory computer readable medium is expressly defined to includeany type of computer readable storage device and/or storage disk and toexclude propagating signals and to exclude transmission media. As usedherein, when the phrase “at least” is used as the transition term in apreamble of a claim, it is open-ended in the same manner as the term“comprising” is open ended. Comprising and all other variants of“comprise” are expressly defined to be open-ended terms. Including andall other variants of “include” are also defined to be open-ended terms.In contrast, the term consisting and/or other forms of consist aredefined to be close-ended terms.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart representative of example computer-readableinstructions 300 to implement the example duplication manager 130 ofFIG. 1 and/or FIG. 2 to estimate deduplicated total audiences forcross-platform media campaigns. The example program 300 of FIG. 3 beginsat block 305 when the example duplication manager 130 selects across-platform media campaign to process. At block 310, the exampleduplication manager 130 selects a media hierarchy level (e.g., episodelevel, program level, originator level, etc.) at which to perform thededuplication.

At block 315, the example duplication manager 130 determines TV audiencemetrics for the selected media campaign at the selected media hierarchylevel. For example, the example metrics manager 205 (FIG. 2) may obtainTV audience metrics for the selected media campaign from the TVmeasurement entity 108 (FIG. 1).

At block 320, the example duplication manager 130 determines totaldigital audience metrics for the selected media campaign at the selectedmedia hierarchy level. For example, the example metrics manager 205(FIG. 2) may obtain total digital audience metrics for the selectedmedia campaign from the total digital measurement entity 116 (FIG. 1).

As an illustrative example, an example Table 2 below illustratesaudience reaches associated with the TV platform and the total digitalplatform provided by the example metrics manager 205 at the episodelevel.

TABLE 2 TV = Yes TV = No Total Digital = Yes X₁₁ = ? X₀₁ = ?Reach_(digital) = 0.3 Total Digital = No X₁₀ = ? X₀₀ = ? Reach_(TV) =0.6 Population = UE = 1000 people

In the example Table 2 above, the duplicated audience reaches for the TVplatform (Reach_(TV)) and the total digital platform (Reach_(digital))are provided by the metrics manager 205 based on, for example, thenumber of impressions for media associated with the TV platform and thetotal digital platform, respectively, within the population of anaudience to be measured (UE=1000). However, because the impressionsinclude panelists (e.g., from the TV measurement entity 108) andnon-panelists (e.g., census impressions from the total digitalmeasurement entity 116), the example metrics manager 205 is unable toprovide granular metrics, such as, for example, (1) the number ofaudience members who were exposed to the media campaign via the TVplatform and the total digital platforms, (2) the number of audiencemembers who were exposed to the media campaign via the TV platform andnot the total digital platform, (3) the number of audience members whowere exposed to the media campaign via the total digital platform andnot the TV platform, and (4) the number of people within the populationto be measured who were not exposed to the media campaign.

At block 325, the example duplication manager 130 maps the mediacampaign to a media genre. For example, the example deduplicator 220determines a media genre (e.g., comedy, drama, news, etc.) associatedwith the media.

At block 330, the example duplication manager 130 obtains an overlapmultiplier (OR) based on the media genre. For example, the deduplicator220 may obtain the overlap multiplier (OR) from the example factorsdatabase 215 (FIG. 2). In some examples, the factors database 215 ispopulated with overlap multipliers by, for example, a third-partyprovider. In some examples, the factors database 215 is populated withoverlap multipliers based on calculations performed by the exampleoverlap calculator 210. An example implementation of calculating theoverlap multipliers is disclosed below in connection with FIG. 4. Anillustrative example described below is based on the deduplicator 220retrieving an overlap multiplier (OR) of 0.375.

At block 335, the example duplication manager 130 determines theduplication factor (DF) for the media campaign based on the duplicatedreach values (e.g., the duplicated TV reach values and the duplicatedtotal digital reach values) obtained from the example metrics manager205. For example, the example deduplicator 220 may apply Equation 4(reproduced with example values below) to calculate the duplicationfactor (DF).

$\begin{matrix}{{DF} = {\frac{( {{- 1} + ( {( {0.375 - 1} )*( {0.6 + 0.3} )} )} )}{2*( {1 - 0.375} )} + \frac{\sqrt{\begin{matrix}{( {1 + {( {0.375 - 1} )*( {0.6 + 0.3} )}} )^{2} +} \\{4( {1 - 0.375} )( {0.375*0.6*0.3} )}\end{matrix}}}{2*( {1 - 0.375} )}}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 4}\end{matrix}$

In the illustrated example, the deduplicator 220 applies the duplicatedaudience reach values (e.g., Reach_(TV)=0.6 and Reach_(digital)=0.3) inTable 2 and the overlap multiplier (OR=0.375) to Equation 4 above todetermine that the duplication factor (DF) is 0.13.

At block 345, the example duplication manager 130 calculates thededuplicated total audience (DDTA) across the TV and total digitalplatforms for the selected media campaign at the selected mediahierarchy level (e.g., episode level, program level, originator level,etc.). For example, the example audience manager 225 (FIG. 2) may applyEquation 3 (reproduced with example values below) to calculate thededuplicated total audience (DDTA) across the TV platform and the totaldigital platform.

DDTA=1000*(0.6+0.3−(0.6+0.3)*0.13)=782 people  Equation 3:

In the illustrated example, the audience manager 225 determines thededuplicated total audience (DDTA) based on a total audience of the TVplatform (UE*reach_(TV)=1000*0.6=600 people), a total audience of thetotal digital platform (UE*reach_(digital)=1000*0.3=300 people) and aduplicated audience between the TV platform and the total digitalplatforms (UE*(reach_(TV)+reach_(digital))*DF=1000*(0.6+0.3)*0.13=118people). The example audience manager 225 subtracts the duplicatedaudience (e.g., 118) from the total audience (e.g., 600+300=900) todetermine the deduplicated total audience (DDTA) for the TV and totaldigital platforms (e.g., 900−118=782) at the selected media hierarchylevel.

At block 345, the example duplication manager 130 determines whetherthere is another media hierarchy level to process. For example, theduplication manager 130 may determine to estimate the deduplicated totalaudience (DDTA) for the media campaign at the program level, theoriginator level, etc. If, at block 345, the duplication manager 130determines that there is another media hierarchy level to process,control returns to block 310 to select another media hierarchy level.

If, at block 345, the duplication manager 130 determines that there isnot another media hierarchy level to process, then, at block 350, theduplication manager 130 determines whether there is another mediacampaign to process. If, at block 350, the duplication manager 130determines that there is another media campaign to process, controlreturns to block 305 to select another media campaign. If, at block 350the duplication manager 130 determines that there is not another mediacampaign to process, the example program 300 of FIG. 3 then ends.

Although not shown in the example program 300 of FIG. 3, in someexamples, the duplication manager 130 may perform the operations ofprogram 300 to estimate the deduplicated total audience (DDT A) fordifferent demographic groups. For example, after block 310, the exampleduplication manager 130 may select a demographic group (e.g., males18-34, females 18-34, males 35-44, females 35-44, etc.) to process. Insome such examples, the example metrics manager 205 may determine theaudience metrics at selected media hierarchy×demographics level. Theoperations of blocks 315, 320, 325, 330, 335, 340 may then be repeatedfor different media hierarchy×demographics levels.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart representative of example computer-readableinstructions 400 to implement the example duplication manager 130 ofFIG. 1 and/or FIG. 2 to calculate the overlap multiplier (OR) for aplurality of media hierarchy×genre levels based on panelist information.In the illustrated example, the overlap multiplier (OR) is an oddsratio. The example program 400 of FIG. 4 begins at block 405 when theexample duplication manager 130 selects a media genre (e.g., comedy,drama, news, etc.) to process. At block 410, the example duplicationmanager 130 selects a media hierarchy level (e.g., episode, program,originator, etc.) to process. At block 415, the example duplicationmanager 130 aggregates audience metrics for the selected mediahierarchy×genre level. For example, the example metrics manager 205 mayobtain TV audience metrics (e.g., TV audience size, TV reach, etc.) fromthe TV measurement entity 108 and total digital audience metrics (e.g.,total digital audience size, total digital reach, etc.) from the totaldigital measurement entity 116 for the selected media hierarchy×genrelevel. The example metrics manager 205 may then aggregate the obtainedaudience metrics for a period (e.g., six months). In the illustratedexample, the audience metrics aggregated by the metrics manager 205 arebased on panelist information included in the example CPH panel database114. Example Table 3 illustrates example metrics that may be aggregatedby the metrics manager 205 for the comedy genre at the episode levelover a six month period.

TABLE 3 Duplicated Audience (Audience_(Duplicated) _(—) _(Panel)) 1000people Deduplicated TV Audience (Audience_(TV)) 4000 people DeduplicatedTotal Digital Audience (Audience_(digital)) 2000 people UniverseEstimate (UE) 10000 people 

At block 420, the example duplication manager 130 determines the panelduplication reach for TV and total digital platforms (X₁₁). For example,the overlap calculator 210 may use Equation 5 (reproduced below withexample values) to calculate the panel duplication reach for the TV andtotal digital platforms (X₁₁).

$\begin{matrix}{X_{11} = {\frac{{Audience}_{{Duplicated}\; \_ \; {Panel}}}{UE} = {\frac{1000}{10000} = 0.1}}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 5}\end{matrix}$

In the illustrated example, the overlap calculator 210 applies theduplicated panel audience (1000) and the universe estimate (10000) toEquation 5 to determine the panel duplication reach for the selectedplatforms (X₁₁=0.1).

At block 425, the example duplication manager 130 determines thededuplicated panel reach for the TV platform (X₁₀). For example, theoverlap calculator 210 may use Equation 6 (reproduced below with examplevalues) to calculate the deduplicated panel reach for the TV platform(X₁₀).

$\begin{matrix}{X_{10} = {\frac{{Audience}_{TV}}{UE} = {\frac{4000}{10000} = 0.4}}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 6}\end{matrix}$

In the illustrated example, the overlap calculator 210 applies thededuplicated TV audience (4000) and the universe estimate (10000) toEquation 6 to determine the deduplicated panel reach for the TV platform(X₁₀=0.4).

At block 430, the example duplication manager 130 determines thededuplicated panel reach for the total digital platform (X₀₁). Forexample, the overlap calculator 210 may use Equation 7 (reproduced belowwith example values) to calculate the deduplicated panel reach for thetotal digital platform (X₀₁).

$\begin{matrix}{X_{01} = {\frac{{Audience}_{digital}}{UE} = {\frac{2000}{10000} = 0.2}}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 7}\end{matrix}$

In the illustrated example, the overlap calculator 210 applies thededuplicated total digital audience (2000) and the universe estimate(10000) to Equation 7 to determine the deduplicated panel reach for thetotal digital platform (X₀₁=0.2).

At block 435, the example duplication manager 130 determines thedid-not-view reach for the selected platforms (X₀₀). For example, theoverlap calculator 210 may use Equation 8 (reproduced below with examplevalues) to calculate the did-not-view reach for the TV and total digitalplatforms (X₀₀).

$\begin{matrix}\begin{matrix}{X_{00} = \frac{\begin{matrix}{{UE} - ( {Audience}_{TV} ) - ( {Audience}_{digital} ) -} \\( {Audience}_{{Duplicated}\; \_ \; {Panel}} )\end{matrix}}{UE}} \\{= \frac{10000 - 1000 - 4000 - 2000}{10000}} \\{= 0.3}\end{matrix} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 8}\end{matrix}$

In the illustrated example, the overlap calculator 210 applies theduplicated panel audience (1000), the deduplicated TV audience (4000),the deduplicated total digital audience (2000) and the universe estimate(10000) to Equation 8 to determine the did-not-view reach (X₀₀) for theTV and total digital platforms (X₀₀=0.3).

At block 440, the example duplication manager 130 determines the overlapmultiplier (OR) for the TV and total digital platforms based on thepanelist information. For example, the overlap calculator 210 appliesthe odds ratio factors (X₁₁), (X₁₀), (X₀₁), (X₀₀) to Equation 9(reproduced with example values below) to calculate the overlapmultiplier (OR) for the selected media hierarchy×genre level over a sixmonth period.

$\begin{matrix}{{OR} = {\frac{X_{11}*X_{00}}{X_{01}*X_{10}} = {\frac{0.1*0.3}{0.2*0.4} = 0.375}}} & {{Equation}\mspace{14mu} 9}\end{matrix}$

In the illustrated example, the overlap calculator 210 applies the oddsratio factors (X₁₁=0.1), (X₁₀=0.4), (X₀₁=0.2), (X₀₀=0.3) to Equation 9to determine the overlap multiplier (OR) for the selected mediahierarchy×genre level over a six month period.

At block 445, the overlap calculator 210 updates the factors database215 (FIG. 2). For example, the overlap calculator 210 records thecalculated overlap multiplier (OR) for the selected mediahierarchy×genre level in the factors database 215. At block 450, theexample duplication manager 130 determines whether there is anothermedia hierarchy level to process. For example, the duplication manager130 may determine to calculate an overlap multiplier at the programlevel, the originator level, etc. If, at block 450, the duplicationmanager 130 determines that there is another media hierarchy level toprocess, control returns to block 410 to select another media hierarchylevel.

If, at block 450, the duplication manager 130 determines that there isnot another media hierarchy level to process, then, at block 455, theduplication manager 130 determines whether there is another media genreto process. For example, the duplication manager 130 may determine tocalculate an overlap multiplier dramas, news programs, etc. If, at block455, the duplication manager 130 determines that there is another mediagenre to process, control returns to block 405 to select another mediagenre. If, at block 455 the duplication manager 130 determines thatthere is not another media genre to process, the example program 400 ofFIG. 4 then ends.

In some examples, the duplication manager 130 may perform the operationsof program 400 to calculate overlap multipliers (OR) for differentdemographic groups. For example, after block 410, the exampleduplication manager 130 may select a demographic group (e.g., males18-34, females 18-34, males 35-44, females 35-44, etc.) to process. Insome such examples, the example metrics manager 205 may aggregate theaudience metrics for the selected media hierarchy×genre×demographicslevel. The operations of blocks 420, 425, 430, 435, 440, 445 may then berepeated for different media hierarchy×genre×demographics levels.

FIG. 5 is a block diagram of an example processor platform 500 capableof executing the instructions of FIG. 3 and/or FIG. 4 to implement theduplication manager 130 of FIG. 1 and/or FIG. 2. The processor platform500 can be, for example, a server, a personal computer, or any othertype of computing device.

The processor platform 500 of the illustrated example includes aprocessor 512. The processor 512 of the illustrated example is hardware.For example, the processor 512 can be implemented by one or moreintegrated circuits, logic circuits, microprocessors or controllers fromany desired family or manufacturer.

The processor 512 of the illustrated example includes a local memory 513(e.g., a cache). The processor 512 of the illustrated example executesthe instructions to implement the example metrics manager 205, theexample overlap calculator 210, the example deduplicator 220 and/or theexample audience manager 225. The processor 512 of the illustratedexample is in communication with a main memory including a volatilememory 514 and a non-volatile memory 516 via a bus 518. The volatilememory 514 may be implemented by Synchronous Dynamic Random AccessMemory (SDRAM), Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), RAMBUS DynamicRandom Access Memory (RDRAM) and/or any other type of random accessmemory device. The non-volatile memory 516 may be implemented by flashmemory and/or any other desired type of memory device. Access to themain memory 514, 516 is controlled by a memory controller.

The processor platform 500 of the illustrated example also includes aninterface circuit 520. The interface circuit 520 may be implemented byany type of interface standard, such as an Ethernet interface, auniversal serial bus (USB), and/or a PCI express interface.

In the illustrated example, one or more input devices 522 are connectedto the interface circuit 520. The input device(s) 522 permit(s) a userto enter data and commands into the processor 512. The input device(s)can be implemented by, for example, an audio sensor, a microphone, acamera (still or video), a keyboard, a button, a mouse, a touchscreen, atrack-pad, a trackball, isopoint and/or a voice recognition system.

One or more output devices 524 are also connected to the interfacecircuit 520 of the illustrated example. The output devices 524 can beimplemented, for example, by display devices (e.g., a light emittingdiode (LED), an organic light emitting diode (OLED), a liquid crystaldisplay, a cathode ray tube display (CRT), a touchscreen, a tactileoutput device, a printer and/or speakers). The interface circuit 520 ofthe illustrated example, thus, typically includes a graphics drivercard, a graphics driver chip or a graphics driver processor.

The interface circuit 520 of the illustrated example also includes acommunication device such as a transmitter, a receiver, a transceiver, amodem and/or network interface card to facilitate exchange of data withexternal machines (e.g., computing devices of any kind) via a network526 (e.g., an Ethernet connection, a digital subscriber line (DSL), atelephone line, coaxial cable, a cellular telephone system, etc.).

The processor platform 500 of the illustrated example also includes oneor more mass storage devices 528 for storing software and/or data.Examples of such mass storage devices 528 include floppy disk drives,hard drive disks, compact disk drives, Blu-ray disk drives, RAIDsystems, and digital versatile disk (DVD) drives. The example massstorage 528 implements the example factors database 215.

Coded instructions 532 represented by the flowcharts of FIG. 3 and/orFIG. 4 may be stored in the mass storage device 528, in the volatilememory 514, in the non-volatile memory 516, and/or on a removabletangible computer readable storage medium such as a CD or DVD.

From the foregoing, it will be appreciated that the above disclosedmethods, apparatus and articles of manufacture facilitate estimatingdeduplicated total audiences for cross-platform media campaigns.Disclosed examples determine metrics, such as audience size, reach, etc.for the TV platform and the total digital platforms. In some examples,the metrics are determined based on panelist information (e.g., from theCPH panel database). In some examples, the metrics are determined basedon panelist and non-panelist (e.g., census) information. Disclosedexamples utilize the determined metrics to determine an overlapmultiplier from panelist information. Disclosed examples also use thedetermined metrics for panelists and non-panelists and an overlapmultiplier corresponding to the media campaign to determine adeduplication factor representing an overlap between the TV and totaldigital platforms. The above-disclosed methods, apparatus and articlesof manufacture deduplicate total audience across the TV and totaldigital platforms to report accurate audience measurements.

It is noted that this patent claims priority from U.S. ProvisionalPatent Application Ser. No. 62/261,253, which was filed on Nov. 30,2015, and is hereby incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.

Although certain example methods, apparatus and articles of manufacturehave been disclosed herein, the scope of coverage of this patent is notlimited thereto. On the contrary, this patent covers all methods,apparatus and articles of manufacture fairly falling within the scope ofthe claims of this patent.

What is claimed is:
 1. An apparatus to estimate deduplicated totalaudience for a media campaign, the apparatus comprising: a metricsmanager to: determine a first audience reach for a television audience,the television audience representative of audience members exposed tothe media campaign via television media delivery; and determine a secondaudience reach for a digital audience, the digital audiencerepresentative of audience members exposed to the media campaign viadigital media delivery; a deduplicator to: obtain an overlap multiplierbased on the media campaign, the overlap multiplier an odds ratio; anddetermine a duplication factor for the media campaign based on the firstaudience reach, the second audience reach and the overlap multiplier;and an audience manager to determine a total audience for the mediacampaign based on the first audience reach, the second audience reachand the duplication factor.
 2. The apparatus as defined in claim 1,wherein the digital media delivery includes at least a digitaltelevision platform or a digital content ratings platform.
 3. Theapparatus as defined in claim 1, wherein the metrics manager is todetermine the first audience reach at a media hierarchy level associatedwith at least an episode, a program or an originator.
 4. The apparatusas defined in claim 1, wherein the deduplicator is to obtain the overlapmultiplier based on a media genre associated with the media campaign. 5.The apparatus as defined in claim 1, wherein the metrics manager is to:determine a first audience size for a second television audience, thesecond television audience representative of panelists exposed to aplurality of television campaigns associated with a media genre;determine a second audience size for a second digital audience, thesecond digital audience representative of panelists exposed to aplurality of digital campaigns associated with the media genre; anddetermine a third audience size for a duplicated audience, theduplicated audience representative of panelists exposed to the pluralityof television campaigns and the plurality of digital campaignsassociated with the media genre.
 6. The apparatus as defined in claim 5,further including an overlap calculator to: determine a television panelreach based on the first audience size and a panelist population basedon the media genre; determine a digital panel reach based on the secondaudience size and the panelist population; determine a panel duplicationreach based on the third audience size and the panelist population; anddetermine a did-not-view reach based on the first audience size, thesecond audience size, the third audience size and the panelistpopulation.
 7. The apparatus as defined in claim 6, wherein the overlapcalculator is to determine the overlap multiplier as a ratio of (1) aproduct of the panel duplication reach and the did-not-view reach and(2) a product of the television panel reach and the digital panel reach.8. A method to estimate deduplicated total audience for a mediacampaign, the method comprising: determining, by executing aninstruction with a processor, a first audience reach for a televisionaudience, the television audience representative of audience membersexposed to the media campaign via television media delivery;determining, by executing an instruction with the processor, a secondaudience reach for a digital audience, the digital audiencerepresentative of audience members exposed to the media campaign viadigital media delivery; selecting, by executing an instruction with theprocessor, an overlap multiplier based on the media campaign, theoverlap multiplier an odds ratio; determining, by executing aninstruction with the processor, a duplication factor for the mediacampaign based on the first audience reach, the second audience reachand the overlap multiplier; and determining, by executing an instructionwith the processor, a total audience for the media campaign based on thefirst audience reach, the second audience reach and the duplicationfactor.
 9. The method as defined in claim 8, wherein the digital mediadelivery includes at least a digital television platform or a digitalcontent ratings platform.
 10. The method as defined in claim 8, furtherincluding determining the first audience reach at a media hierarchylevel associated with at least an episode, a program or an originator.11. The method as defined in claim 8, further including selecting theoverlap multiplier based on a media genre associated with the mediacampaign.
 12. The method as defined in claim 8, further including:determining a first audience size for a second television audience, thesecond television audience representative of panelists exposed to aplurality of television campaigns associated with a media genre;determining a second audience size for a second digital audience, thesecond digital audience representative of panelists exposed to aplurality of digital campaigns associated with the media genre; anddetermining a third audience size for a duplicated audience, theduplicated audience representative of panelists exposed to the pluralityof television campaigns and the plurality of digital campaignsassociated with the media genre.
 13. The method as defined in claim 12,further including: determining a television panel reach based on thefirst audience size and a panelist population based on the media genre;determining a digital panel reach based on the second audience size andthe panelist population; determining a panel duplication reach based onthe third audience size and the panelist population; and determining adid-not-view reach based on the first audience size, the second audiencesize, the third audience size and the panelist population.
 14. Themethod as defined in claim 13, further including determining the overlapmultiplier as a ratio of (1) a product of the panel duplication reachand the did-not-view reach and (2) a product of the television panelreach and the digital panel reach.
 15. A tangible computer readablestorage medium comprising instructions that, when executed, cause amachine to at least: determine a first audience reach for a televisionaudience, the television audience representative of audience membersexposed to a media campaign via television media delivery; determine asecond audience reach for a digital audience, the digital audiencerepresentative of audience members exposed to the media campaign viadigital media delivery; select an odds ratio based on the mediacampaign; determine a duplication factor for the media campaign based onthe first audience reach, the second audience reach and the overlapmultiplier; and determine a total audience for the media campaign basedon the first audience reach, the second audience reach and theduplication factor.
 16. The tangible computer readable storage medium asdefined in claim 15, wherein the digital media delivery includes atleast a digital television platform or a digital content ratingsplatform.
 17. The tangible computer readable storage medium as definedin claim 15, further including instructions that, when executed, causethe machine to determine the first audience reach at a media hierarchylevel associated with at least an episode, a program or an originator.18. The tangible computer readable storage medium as defined in claim15, further including instructions that, when executed, cause themachine to select the overlap multiplier based on a media genreassociated with the media campaign.
 19. The tangible computer readablestorage medium as defined in claim 15, further including instructionsthat, when executed, cause the machine to: determine a first audiencesize for a second television audience, the second television audiencerepresentative of panelists exposed to a plurality of televisioncampaigns associated with a media genre; determine a second audiencesize for a second digital audience, the second digital audiencerepresentative of panelists exposed to a plurality of digital campaignsassociated with the media genre; and determine a third audience size fora duplicated audience, the duplicated audience representative ofpanelists exposed to the plurality of television campaigns and theplurality of digital campaigns associated with the media genre.
 20. Thetangible computer readable storage medium as defined in claim 19,further including instructions that, when executed, cause the machineto: determine a television panel reach based on the first audience sizeand a panelist population based on the media genre; determine a digitalpanel reach based on the second audience size and the panelistpopulation; determine a panel duplication reach based on the thirdaudience size and the panelist population; and determine a did-not-viewreach based on the first audience size, the second audience size, thethird audience size and the panelist population; and determine theoverlap multiplier as a ratio of (1) a product of the panel duplicationreach and the did-not-view reach and (2) a product of the televisionpanel reach and the digital panel reach.